Midland, TX — Rental Investment Analysis
🟡MODERATE— average returnsData: HUD FMR FY2024 + Zillow ZHVI April 2026 + Freddie Mac rates. Last updated June 2026.
Investment Summary
As of 2026, rental properties in Midland, TX yield a 4.2% cap rate. Median home price is $354,847 with 3-bedroom rents at $2,040/month.
Midland is a moderate market — workable but not exceptional for cash flow. Median home price sits at $354,847 — moderate by national standards, requiring a solid down payment but not out of reach. With 3-bedroom rents around $2,040/month, the 4.2% cap rate tells the story. Cash flow is deeply negative at -$653/month with standard assumptions. This market requires appreciation to justify the investment.
At 0.60% on the 1% rule, rents are low relative to purchase prices. You'd need a significant discount from asking price to make the numbers work. DSCR of 0.65 is below 1.0, meaning rental income doesn't cover the mortgage. DSCR lenders will likely decline this market at current prices.
Bottom line: Consider Midland only if you believe in long-term appreciation. The numbers don't support cash flow at today's prices and rates.
Data sources: HUD Fair Market Rents (FY2024), Zillow Home Value Index (April 2026), Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey.
Cap Rate
4.2%
Below average
Monthly Cash Flow
-$653
After all expenses
Price-to-Rent
13.9
Investor-friendly
DSCR
0.65
Fails
Key Metrics
- Median Home Price
- $354,847
- Average Rent (3BR)
- $2,040/mo
- Price-to-Rent Ratio
- 13.9(good)
- 1% Rule
- 0.60%(fails — need 1%+)
- Cash-on-Cash Return
- -9.6%
- Vacancy Rate
- 8.0%
Market Strength
- Unemployment Rate
- 4.3%(0% vs national)
- Rent Growth (YoY)
- +2.9%(national avg)
- Population Growth
- +1.5% YoY
Property Tax Rate
1.68%
of assessed value (TX avg)
Median Income
$67,321
household (TX avg)
Rent-to-Income
36.4%
Stretched
Section 8 Max Rent
$2,040/mo
3BR voucher payment
TX Investor Climate
Landlord Friendly
9/10
State Income Tax
None
Property Tax
1.68% effective
Population Trend
+1.5% (3yr)
Population Movement (Tax Year 2021→2022)
Net Migration
+163 households
GROWING
Total Inflow
1,234
households moved in
Avg Income (New Residents)
$63,843
per household
Where they're coming from:
Where residents are leaving to:
Strong net inflow suggests growing rental demand and upward pressure on rents.